McCain picks Palin

[altariel]

No, not Michael, although surely that would have been a sure-fire winner. Sarah Palin, Governor of Alaska.

Thorts, o my flisters? Has this swung it for McCain? I have to say when I read the story, I thought, "You crafty bastards."

(Ladbrokes were offering 100:1 on this last night. Bugger.)

Comments

[communicator.livejournal.com]

Cynical move, paper-thin candidate, ten minute wonder

[tiggerallyn.livejournal.com]

Thorts, o my flisters? Has this swung it for McCain?
This pick hasn't swung it for McCain, no. A couple of reasons.

1) No name recognition.

2) No significant experience. She's only been the governor of Alaska for a year and a half, and before that she was the mayor of a town of 8,000.

3) Alaska was going for McCain anyway.

4) She's embroiled in a state trooper scandal.

Now, she does have a compelling story — she carried a Down's Syndrome baby to term and refused to abort. She's rabidly pro-life. She has Big Oil bonafides.

But I tend to think she's going to be the 2008 version of Dan Quayle.

[dkpalaska.livejournal.com]

But I tend to think she's going to be the 2008 version of Dan Quayle.

Definitely their biggest risk. She's made a few rather silly mistakes in office.

[kendokamel.livejournal.com]

Personally, I believe the only reason McCain picked her is because he figured he'd better get on board the "It's the 21st Century!" Train and find a way to make himself appealing to anyone who is not a Rich Old White Man.


Speaking of Rich Old White Men...

[altariel.livejournal.com]

Oh, that billboard is awesome!

[dkpalaska.livejournal.com]

"You crafty bastards."

Oh, yes. I think it will be interesting. It's hard to see how another old white man in a suit would have done much to enhance McCain's campaign, so I'm not too surprised that he would do something unexpected. It's in his character, too, in a way.

She is very popular in Alaska among conservatives and moderates, but yes, young and untested on a national level. And Alaska is not exactly center stage among the states, although there's a romanticism to being from it.

Her husband is a blue-collar worker, and she has quite a bit of experience with the currently hot-button energy issue. (Alaska = oil.)

Another potential young Republican candidate that I'd heard about was Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, but there was likely too much political fallout to nominate him.

[bethos.livejournal.com]

The main thing I'm worried about is the democrats getting sexist because that will make them look totally hypocritical.

[mraltariel.livejournal.com]

Much as I would prefer to see Obama win (mad though I think all flavours of mainstream US politician might be, it is important in symbolic value alone), I think that McCain is probably the marginal favourite at the moment (and despite the national share-of-the-vote polling) - largely because the Democrats are suffering somewhat from

a) high expectations of victory but
b) terrible insecurity after Bush II
c) a tendency to fight the last war (i.e. against Bush) rather than the current one.
d) a tendency to underestimate the effects of unvocalized racism in polling v. the polling booth
e) the mauling they gave themselves during the primaries, from which they will not fully recover

This race is extremely tight, and if they don't get their fingers out, the Dems are going to lose.

[kalypso-v.livejournal.com]

Ha, I thought picking a woman would be a smart way to outflank the Democrats. But no one seemed to expect him to do it.

On the bright side, maybe there will be Republicans as annoyed by the choice of a woman as some Democrats by the choice of a not-woman, and they will cancel each other out? And if he's trying to sell himself as Experienced Guy, is Not So Experienced Gal the obvious back-up for a 72-year-old?

[the-wild-iris.livejournal.com]

I don't know enough about Ms Palin or the McCain campaign to have an informed opinion, but I thought after browsing her profile that she's maybe neither fish enough for Hillary Clinton's supporters nor fowl enough for the hardline conservatives - an ally more likely to appeal to McCain's existing powerbase than to win him a new one.

Most radical thing since the 70s for McCain?

[(Anonymous)]

I have to say when I read the story, I thought, "You crafty bastards."

If only he'd expended an ounce of the creativity this pick may have required to expose, stall, or undermine the administration's militarism and fundamental dishonesty and blatant disrespect for the law (or anything else that gets in its way)! Friggin' waste of effort, though given the Dems' abilities to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory, I won't be surprised if suddenly America feels all 'feminist' and McCainian in a couple of months.

Deeply cynical,
Dwim

Gah!

[(Anonymous)]

"John McCain has introduced Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin, a conservative who shares his maverick streak, as his vice presidential running mate in a startling selection on the eve of the Republican National"

From AP. I'm sorry, this is exactly what pisses me off. Oh yes, McCain the Maverick. Whatever Palin's credentials may be, even if she is somewhat maverick, linking her up with McCain on that basis reinforces the so very, very out of date and just false image of McCain as maverick that gets people all starry-eyed about him.

Dwim

[lame-pegasus.livejournal.com]

I'm watching this whole business from the other side of the ocean, slowly despairing at the false insanity of it all. Obama may not be the perfect candidate, but he stands for a change the US urgently need. And though I'm willing to grant McCain a certain measure of honesty (regarding his efforts to banish torture), I can't help feeling that he won't enable a true improvement, neither of real politics nor the tragically lost reputation.

Great God, as if this was some cheap soap opera! The Russian Bear gives a short roar, and suddenly all those important ideas about civil rights and needless wars seem (as the German magazine Der Spiegel said last week) to shrink to the question who of both men is more male or patriotic. Who rules over one of the most powerful countries of this world seems to depend on who of both waves the flag more enthusiastically - or is the owner of the bigger cojones.

And now - oh, McCain has actually chosen a woman for Vice President! Hooray - he can't be that bad, for now he's waving a petticoat! (Sorry if that sounds cynical, but however skilled and able that female governor may be, she's IMHO nothing more but a pseudo-progressive figleaf. I should feel pity for her, only that the whole thing makes me way too furious.)

*headdesks*

[brendan-moody.livejournal.com]

As a choice that defies conventional wisdom, this will probably be seen as significant to McCain's victory if he wins or his loss if he loses, even if the actual evidence suggests otherwise. That being said, I think it's the first move by either candidate that at least has the potential to change the dynamic of the campaign.

It's going to be hard for Democrats to criticize Palin for lack of experience given Obama's own record. It's going to be hard for them to criticize Palin at all without running the risk of doing it on terms that will reawaken barely buried resentment among the Clinton supporters at whom her choice is obviously targeted. And she's conservative enough that she probably won't rile the Republican base.

On the other hand, there's a real chance that Palin will prove not to be ready for prime time. Obama may not have years of national experience, but he's clearly a talented politician who isn't more prime to saying stupid things than any other recent leader, while Palin (though photogenic) could easily fail to impress on the national scale. And her record, while conservative enough to annoy liberals, has a few blemishes from an American ultra-right perspective.

...So all this boils down to "I don't know." I was uncertain about the outcome of this election before, and I still am now.

I could have used the dosh...

[shezan.livejournal.com]

100:1?

Fuck.

Re: I could have used the dosh...

[altariel.livejournal.com]

'Fraid so.

Re: I could have used the dosh...

[mraltariel.livejournal.com]

I know. Especially galling is a got an email from someone at politicalbetting.com tipping me off to it yesterday. I am going to pay more attention to that kind of tip in future... 100quid at those prices would have made a bit of a difference.

[toft-froggy.livejournal.com]

randomeliza has some interesting things to say on the subject.

[altariel.livejournal.com]

Interesting post, thanks for the link.

[amysisson.livejournal.com]

My first thought was "Desperate much?"

[mikekellner.livejournal.com]

A bunch of things to consider....

The US presidency is a likability contest, not a resume contest. Seeing her, I bet she scores high on the Q Meters they use to test TV personalities these days. Likely she scores higher than Joe Biden. That is really more important than if you know who the Foreign Minister of Latvia is.

McCain just balanced his ticket, Obama did not. Both parties have essentially two major factions, the true believers and the moderates. Obama & Biden are both from the true believer (Liberal) wing of the Democrats, McCain is a Moderate & Palin is a Conservative. A balanced ticket unifies the party by giving the faction that lost the primary the other slot.

She is really good. I was vaguely aware of her and I follow politics closer than most. Most had never heard of her before this afternoon. Watch the video of the announcement, not just the clips the TV news thinks will make their case, whichever side they are on. About 25 min. A good performance for a rookie.

http://www.breitbart.tv/html/163813.html

She is real middle class, middle America. To many, she will be regarded as one of us, not one of them. This is a very strong pick.

This is a real close race. It was all but tied before the convention bounce Obama is getting, but his bounce won't last. McCain will get his bounce next week and we'll be back to even. The Real Clear Politics summary of state by state polls shows a near tie in the Electoral Vote, which is all that matters. Obama 273 - McCain 265. McCain was ahead by a few last week.

So hang onto your seats. This is going to be close.

mk

[fallingtowers.livejournal.com]

To me, it does look like a cunning and cynical move to win over both the disgruntled swingvotes who thought about supporting Hilary and the more conservative side of the Republican party (given Palin's pro-life stance). However, it may not be merely cynical, but also vastly successful.

*sigh*

[dkpalaska.livejournal.com]

I read this and immediately flashed back to your LJ, and thought you might enjoy it:
http://www.luannsroom.com/comics/getfuzzy/archive/getfuzzy-20080912.html

The next day continues the theme very nicely. :)

[altariel.livejournal.com]

LOL! Brilliant!