it seems that many (albeit not the safest) safe seats will become more changeable
Yes, that seems likely to be the case, although it's unclear to me whether enough of those will become changeable actually to make a difference.
whether the prospect of being more likely to unseat a sitting candidate in some of those "safe" seats would turn more opposition voters out in future...
Indeed, prediction is a tricky game! I looked at the turnout data for the last election on safe seats to see whether it was depressed, and it didn't seem to indicate that turnout was substantially lower in safe seats. But that was only from a quick eyeball of the data.
My conclusion is that AV isn't likely to make much difference when it comes to forming governments, or to two-party politics in Westminster. Data seems to suggest that it will benefit the LibDems slightly, although of course now the LibDems have actually been in government, we are back to guesswork again.
As for whether I should vote 'yes' or 'no'... I've still not heard a knockout argument for 'yes', other than "a change will does us good" or "John Reid supports the 'no' campaign". Everything else seems speculation.
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momijizukamori
no subject
Date: 2011-03-30 09:12 pm (UTC)Yes, that seems likely to be the case, although it's unclear to me whether enough of those will become changeable actually to make a difference.
whether the prospect of being more likely to unseat a sitting candidate in some of those "safe" seats would turn more opposition voters out in future...
Indeed, prediction is a tricky game! I looked at the turnout data for the last election on safe seats to see whether it was depressed, and it didn't seem to indicate that turnout was substantially lower in safe seats. But that was only from a quick eyeball of the data.
My conclusion is that AV isn't likely to make much difference when it comes to forming governments, or to two-party politics in Westminster. Data seems to suggest that it will benefit the LibDems slightly, although of course now the LibDems have actually been in government, we are back to guesswork again.
As for whether I should vote 'yes' or 'no'... I've still not heard a knockout argument for 'yes', other than "a change will does us good" or "John Reid supports the 'no' campaign". Everything else seems speculation.